Prairie Crop Charts
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Lentils: Crimsons stronger than Lairds. For how Long?   Lentil varieties regularly exhibit unique variations in price behaviour and this year is no exception.   In recent weeks, average delivered elevator prices for Crimson Lentils in Saskatchewan have enjoyed a strong rally. New Crop Crimson bids have been pulled up to levels which are higher than post-harvest prices were in 2012 and 2013. This buoyancy is bound to attract acreage and increase future supplies. Note Crimson’s proximity to their old highs which could provide overhead resistance, and the approach of their typically steep seasonal downturn.   In contrast, Laird Lentil prices have been relatively lethargic and are currently well below their old highs and 5 and 9 Year Averages. Even New Crop Laird prices are about ¾ of a cent/lb below Crimsons. Some can be forgiven if they are not excited, but, if the result is relatively tighter future supplies, this year’s typical post-harvest price recovery could be better than average.
Dry Edible Beans
Edible Beans: Pintos take a tumble   Pinto Beans are demonstrably more volatile than Navy and Black Beans, but the magnitude of their 2014 price drop is remarkable. Although Pintos do not have a history of “leading” the others, the price differences may have encouraged acreage switches in favour of the higher priced Navies and Blacks. If so, greater supplies of Navies and Blacks and a smaller crop of Pintos could encourage prices to converge again. However, this does pose a risk that Navy Bean and Pinto prices could soften somewhat. Finally, remember that Edible Beans tend to make abrupt price adjustments each year in June, so any surprise should be sooner rather than later.
Yellow Peas
Yellow Peas: Between rain and competitive pricing   Yellows may be caught in a near term tug-of-war between the bullish threat of excess moisture and the bearish menace of weaker Corn.     Looking at Yellow Pea prices in isolation, their slow recovery and shallow uptrend line seems to be stalling underneath a zone of overhead resistance. Moreover, the typical seasonal tendency suggests the threat of a fairly immediate downturn.   Given that Yellow Pea prices have a rough relationship with both Corn and Feed Wheat, CBOT Corn’s recent retreat is reminiscent of the 2009 experience that ultimately pulled the other two lower. However, in 2009, it is noteworthy that Yellows had a late bout of strength (arrow) before heading down. Might this year’s excessive rains produce similar behaviour?
Site News   Prairie Crop Charts converted to a subscriber based service on September 1, 2014. Don’t miss out on future crop chart updates and commentary. Subscribe today! Complete and submit the subscription order form or call either 1-800-567-5671 or 1-204-942-1459.
Crimson Lentils
Crimson Lentils: Prudent precaution or buying panic?   When prices test a key chart breakout level, it often means that market has a major decision to make.   For Crimson Lentils, one question to be answered concerns the significance of this year’s tardy and lighter than normal Indian monsoon rains. Over coming weeks, South Asian buyers will make production/supply judgements based on local conditions and set their import strategy accordingly. As a major Crimson exporter, Canada often fills the role of “swing” supplier and our prices reflect their decisions.   While waiting for a chart breakout or failure, note that New Crop Crimson prices are below old crop and not far from the long term average of $0.226/lb. This may suggest ongoing commercial caution in front of a probably large Canadian crop.   For the moment, the Crimson chart can not confirm if recent price gains represent simple precautionary buying or the first sign of a scramble. That answer should come soon.
Green Peas
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Welcome to Prairie Crop Charts
   Charts - a pictorial history of markets - can be a powerful decision making tool. Patterns repeat. A seasoned analyst can tell a lot about what is likely to happen in a particular situation, based on chart patterns.    In any market, knowing what is likely to happen is a big edge. Most commodity spec funds, for example, trade on charts. If charts work for billion dollar hedge funds, odds are they may provide you a hand when you’re marketing your 10,000 bushels of lentils. For a farmer, charts can be a helpful marketing tool.    Prairie Crop Charts: Updated each weekday morning, a Prairie Crop Charts subscription [$400 per year] covers the major grains, oilseeds and special crops grown on the Prairies: canola, oats, wheat, barley, flax, soybeans, red lentils, green lentils, brown mustard, yellow mustard, oriental mustard, canary, green peas, yellow peas, chickpeas, edible beans and more.    Summaries and direct links to the most recent crop charts, analysis and commentary follow below. Additional crop chart analysis may be located by following the navigation bar links above.    Introducing the Basic Chart Service: Seeking just charts without added analytical tools, trend lines, analysis and commentary? We are pleased to now offer the Basic Chart Service [$99 per year].    Updated weekly on Mondays, subscribers to the Basic Chart Service have access to unannotated nine month charts for the crops we cover [Sample Basic Charts.] Where appropriate, the basic charts include provincial and crop type breakdowns.    Don’t miss out on future crop chart updates. Subscribe today! Complete and submit the subscription order form or call either 1-800-567-5671 or 1-204-942-1459.    Still undecided? Sign up for a one week free trial of Prairie Crop Charts.